The proposed US sanctions legislation targeting buyers of Russian crude makes it more critical for India to negotiate a trade deal with the United States, while any disruption to crude supplies could raise India’s import bill and put pressure on the rupee, Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said.
Speaking exclusively to ANI on the latest US measures, Sabnavis said India would need to assess its crude imports depending on the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the US.
“It becomes even more critical how we negotiate a deal with the USA in light of this development. We are already in talks, and hopefully a solution should be found,” Sabnavis said.
The US Senate on Friday passed a Russia sanctions bill that could impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries, including India and China, that purchase Russian crude oil and natural gas.
Sabnavis said India may have to turn to other countries for crude imports depending on the negotiations with the US. However, he said there was no immediate pressure as crude prices were currently stable at around USD 80.
“Depending on the negotiations with the US, we will have to import from other countries. As the war seems to have thawed, the crude price is stable at 80 or so. There is no immediate problem,” he said.
The economist, however, cautioned that a renewed escalation in the conflict and any disruption to supplies could have a more significant impact on India’s external position.
“The issue will be if war escalates and supplies are blocked. Import bill will go up and put pressure on rupee,” Sabnavis said.
He added that Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits could provide some counterbalance, but the impact on the current account deficit (CAD) would remain.
“FCNR will provide counter balance here. But CAD gets impacted for sure,” he said, adding that the impact on CAD may currently not be too high and could be around 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP.
The Senate legislation was passed with an 86-11 vote and identifies India, China, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan among the countries of concern for purchases of Russian energy.
The bill comes amid ongoing India-US trade negotiations, where tariff structures remain a key issue.
