India’s semiconductor ecosystem is likely to move through project commissioning, customer qualification and yield stabilisation over the next three to five years, with localisation of recurring inputs and higher-value packaging expected to follow, according to a research report by 360 ONE Capital.
The brokerage said near-term earnings opportunities are likely to emerge across construction, utilities, electronics manufacturing, components, engineering, automation and equipment support before direct fab and OSAT economics become more visible.
India’s semiconductor demand is projected to rise from about USD 56 billion in 2025 to more than USD 117 billion by 2030, implying a roughly 16 per cent CAGR. Twelve approved projects under the India Semiconductor Mission represent more than USD 18 billion of investment, while the broader ISM 2.0 ecosystem could catalyse over USD 35 billion of additional investment, the brokerage said.
“Capacity is being built ahead of proven demand and supplier depth, so execution matters more than announcements,” the report said, highlighting the importance of customer qualification, competitive yields and utilisation as projects progress.
It added that the semiconductor opportunity should be viewed over a longer horizon, noting that “the theme should be evaluated over a 10-15-year horizon rather than as an immediate earnings cycle.” Near-term value capture could be stronger among ecosystem enablers such as cleanrooms, utilities, equipment support, gases, chemicals, testing and engineering, it said.
The report said the next phase would increasingly test whether announced capacity can translate into commercially viable output. “The critical question is no longer whether factories can be constructed. It is whether they can achieve competitive yields, qualify with global customers and operate at scale,” it said.
The brokerage identified construction and equipment installation, process qualification, yield improvement, customer qualification, volume ramp-up, local supplier content and product mix as key milestones to monitor as India’s semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem develops.
