Brent crude has climbed up more than 60 per cent since the conflict in the Middle East began, from roughly $70 per barrel to about $112 per barrel on Monday.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices for May futures on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged 0.65 per cent at Rs 9,318 per barrel.
Crude rose about 56 per cent in the past 30 days, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $98.75 per barrel on Monday after rising over 2 per cent in the previous session.
Escalating tensions in West Asia continues to threaten key shipping lanes, notably the Strait of Hormuz, and prompted production cuts and force majeure declarations across oil production plants in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour deadline to Iran for fully opening the Strait of Hormuz is set to expire on Monday creating concerns among commodities traders. President Trump had warned that Iran’s power plants would be “obliterated” if the shipping lanes are not open.
Meanwhile, Iran’s administration has responded with threats to attack energy infrastructure of Gulf countries, adding that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked and navigation continues in the waterway, with necessary measures being taken due to wartime conditions.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent average estimate to $85 per barrel from $77/bbl and predicted a near‑term average of $110/bbl for March–April period. It forecasts that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will stay at only 5 per cent of normal levels for a longer six-week period before a gradual one-month recovery.
Despite tightening supply conditions in Asia, crude inventories in OECD economies across the US and Europe continue to build, reflecting the fact that global supply had been exceeding demand before the conflict began.
The global financial institution has also estimated that crude output losses in the Middle East could rise from 11 million barrels per day at present to a peak of 17 million barrels per day.
