Multinational brokerage Bank of America Securities (BofA) downgraded the rating on IDFC First Bank Ltd. to ‘Neutral’ and cut its 12‑month target price to Rs 75 from Rs 95, citing near‑term headwinds after the bank was de‑empanelled by the Haryana government following a fraud incident.
The brokerage predicted a 13 to 14 per cent cut to the bank’s EPS estimates which prompted a downgrade from its earlier ‘Buy’ rating.
The bank has seen nearly Rs 200 crore of deposit outflows from the Haryana government since the incident, with outstanding deposits currently at around 0.5 per cent of the bank’s total deposits.
The bank in an exchange filing reported a fraud of Rs 590 crore in Haryana government accounts involving certain employees and has appointed KPMG for a forensic audit with a final report expected in four‑five weeks.
Analysts at BofA warned the fraud incident poses risks to current account and savings account (CASA) growth, could elevate funding costs and slightly ease loan growth, likely raising operating expenditure for risk management and compliance. The brokerage trimmed the bank’s loan growth estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 1-2 per cent and cut deposit growth forecasts by up to 3 per cent.
“We believe that higher funding cost on disruption in CASA and increasing competition in deposit markets is likely to put pressure on NIM. This results in a 13/14 per cent cut to our EPS estimates for FY26/27,” a note said.
However, the brokerage remained constructive on the bank over the medium term given the healthy growth and return on assets expansion continues. Shares of IDFC First Bank are down 12.50 per cent so far this week to Rs 72.54 per cent on Thursday, surging 3.30 per cent on an intraday basis.
Independent brokerage estimates suggested that the suspected fraud amounts to about 0.9 per cent of the bank’s net worth and 20 per cent of its FY26 pre‑tax profit.
